Brexit

02.02.2019 Brexit

After the Brady Amendment, where next for Brexit? Even now, there is no majority for a Brexit Deal anywhere in sight

The House of Commons adopted two Amendments to its Brexit motion on Tuesday this week – the Brady Amendment to replace the Northern Ireland Backstop with “alternative arrangements”, and the Spelman/Dromey Amendment against a No Deal Brexit but lacking a

20.01.2019 Brexit

Labour should back a People’s Vote, but need not explicitly back Remain

Back in December I wrote that trying to break UK party politics was not the way out of Britain’s Brexit conundrum. The events of this past 7 days underline this even more. Back in December, 117 Tory MPs voted to

17.01.2019 Brexit

Brexit – where now? The flow diagrams

Looking for new diagrams? There is a whole new series from May 2019 onwards here! Diagrams as featured by The New York Times! I have tried to make sense of Brexit through a series of flow diagrams that have evolved

31.12.2018 Brexit

Which way does May go? What she decides to do when her deal fails will have a significant impact on Brexit

Cowed and weakened after the events of the past few months, Theresa May will nevertheless stagger into the New Year as Prime Minister of the UK. And what she does between now and 17th (or possibly 21st) January will shape

22.12.2018 Brexit

Breaking Britain’s party structure is – for now anyway – not the way out of the short term Brexit impasse

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn might be atypical leaders of their respective parties, but in one way they are as traditional as they come: the extent to which they are partisan. Tribal. Defenders of their own parties above pretty much

18.12.2018 Brexit

In praise of the Brexit Twitter nerds

I am not sure this answer to a troll by Jean-Claude Piris this morning will change the guy’s mind. But “I have written a good part [of it]” when it comes to understanding the Treaty of Lisbon is a tremendous

16.12.2018 Brexit

What the 4 major events in the past week mean for Brexit

Even by the standards of the two and a half turbulent years since the Brexit referendum, the last 7 days have been quite something. Four major events shaped the week, and will shape what happens to Brexit now and –

30.11.2018 Brexit

How to make sure the People’s Vote ends up with the UK staying in the EU

In a fortnight the House of Commons will almost certainly reject Theresa May’s Brexit deal when the so-called “Meaningful Vote” happens. After that the path ahead is unclear, but one of the ways forward would be for a second Brexit

26.11.2018 Brexit

What should the “People’s Vote” Brexit referendum question be?

So we have a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. A Brexit “Deal”. And at the time of writing it looks pretty unlikely that such a deal will manage to get through the “Meaningful Vote” in the House of Commons (more

26.11.2018 Brexit

Why it might make good tactical sense for the Tories to oust Theresa May after the “Meaningful Vote”

Theresa May stumbles on. Disliked by all in equal measure, she nevertheless has managed to survive through an awful election result in 2017, to get a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration signed off in Brussels and, most recently, has

25.11.2018 Brexit

There is a Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration. What next?

OK, so it has been agreed. The Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were signed off today in Brussels. Now Theresa May has to take this back to London and get it through the “meaningful vote” scheduled for 11 December sometime

13.11.2018 Brexit

Brexit and the myth of strength and decisiveness in British politics

Sometime in 2000 or 2001 when I was still an undergraduate, Bogdanor and Butler had invited Jack Straw to one of their workshops about British politics at Brasenose College. Whether Labour might eventually get around to reforming the UK’s election