The Westminster Tornado
Can it get any worse? Labour’s General Secretary Peter Watt has had to resign over donations from David Abrahams via 3 associates. It looks like the planning process might have been compromised as a result (Evening Standard link, so take it with a pinch of salt), and Abrahams also made donations to the Harriet Harman and Hillary Benn Deputy Leadership campaigns – see The Telegraph timeline. Put that against the backdrop of the HMRC disks problems, ongoing wrangles about Northern Rock, incorrect non-UK worker numbers, the election that never happened and – most crucially – the creeping doubts about Gordon Brown’s leadership style, and things are looking really dire.
It feels like there is some sort of tornado blowing through the corridors of Westminster, relentlessly tearing into the conventions and traditions. How can it change so fast? Or is it only our perceptions that are changing fast? Where is there a steady hand, ready to assume control once more? Or was it the case that things changed this fast for the Tories on Black Wednesday, only I was 12 years old at the time and cannot recall it?
It really depends which poll you look at. I remember it as pretty quick.
The Tories went from a 5% lead in August 1992 to a 4% deficit in November with ICM, so not an enormous change. However ICM adjusted their methodology. If you look at Gallup, they went from a 2.5% lead in September to a 22% deficit in October, so you could describe it as ‘that quick’.
Essentially, when the media decide you’re finished, you are in fact finished – that’s why we’re hearing a lot about David Abrahams, and nothing about Fifth Avenue Partners, or the Midland Industrial Council.