No Deal Brexit

03.09.2019 Brexit

Arguments with superficial plausibility in the Brexit debate

At the time of writing, it looks like Boris Johnson is going to try to call an election on Monday 14th October, if the House of Commons (as expected) votes to stop a No Deal Brexit after sittings resume later

01.09.2019 Brexit

Brexit – What Next? Brexit Diagrams Series 3

NOTE! These are no longer the newest Brexit Diagrams! The new Series 4 can be found here. Series 3 also worked! Every diagram had a General Election as the most likely outcome, and that is what happened! After the success

23.08.2019 Brexit

The UK might crash out of the EU. But that will not happen during a General Election campaign.

Those of us who follow Brexit on an everyday basis have become obsessed by process. How, we ask ourselves, will the 14 day timetable imposed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act post-Vote of No Confidence (VONC) play out with the required

24.05.2019 Brexit

What May’s resignation means for the Brexit process

So May has gone. Or at least said when she will go. Her statement today that she will stand aside on 7th June, together with the announcement by Brandon Lewis and others about the timetable for the leadership election that

15.02.2019 Brexit

Brexit – what we know now, and how to still stop it

42 days to go to Brexit. Just over 1000 hours. And we still do not know what is going to happen in the Brexit saga. Yet as the clock ticks, some things become clearer. My Brexit diagrams have fewer branches.

02.02.2019 Brexit

After the Brady Amendment, where next for Brexit? Even now, there is no majority for a Brexit Deal anywhere in sight

The House of Commons adopted two Amendments to its Brexit motion on Tuesday this week – the Brady Amendment to replace the Northern Ireland Backstop with “alternative arrangements”, and the Spelman/Dromey Amendment against a No Deal Brexit but lacking a

31.12.2018 Brexit

Which way does May go? What she decides to do when her deal fails will have a significant impact on Brexit

Cowed and weakened after the events of the past few months, Theresa May will nevertheless stagger into the New Year as Prime Minister of the UK. And what she does between now and 17th (or possibly 21st) January will shape

13.11.2018 Brexit

Brexit and the myth of strength and decisiveness in British politics

Sometime in 2000 or 2001 when I was still an undergraduate, Bogdanor and Butler had invited Jack Straw to one of their workshops about British politics at Brasenose College. Whether Labour might eventually get around to reforming the UK’s election

31.10.2018 Brexit

The Irish Border Backstop – why did the UK agree it?

There was a fascinating piece in the FT yesterday by Alex Barker and Arthur Beesley entitled “How the Irish border backstop became Brexit’s defining issue“. “The backstop: How a ‘meaningless’ clause now risks derailing Brexit” by Edward Malnick in The

18.10.2018 Brexit

Tag: No Deal Brexit

Arguments with superficial plausibility in the Brexit debate

Brexit – What Next? Brexit Diagrams Series 3

The UK might crash out of the EU. But that will not happen during a General Election campaign.

What May’s resignation means for the Brexit process

Brexit – what we know now, and how to still stop it

After the Brady Amendment, where next for Brexit? Even now, there is no majority for a Brexit Deal anywhere in sight

Which way does May go? What she decides to do when her deal fails will have a significant impact on Brexit

Brexit and the myth of strength and decisiveness in British politics

The Irish Border Backstop – why did the UK agree it?

When is the UK going to panic?

Britain is not going to have a No Deal Brexit. Because there is no way to get that far.

The political crisis route to Remain