1/ Accidentally did a great experiment to show how urge to fit new data to existing political beliefs overpowers actual words ppl read
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3/ Why have >90% misinterpreted? >90% looking at politics fit new data into a network of existing beliefs & thereby fool themselves
4/ & political/media/twitter political discussion has no language/concepts for coping with probabilistic judgements made amid uncertainty
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5/ ppl looking at politics are so gang-driven they're blinded if s/one says they aren't 100% confident in their predictions
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6/ Partic funny to see well-educated IN-ers ranting about a failure to have 100% confidence, with no awareness such a view is childlike
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7/ Am I less happy re REF result today than 24/6/16? No, just as happy. But I do have one big regret...
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Is your regret that you did not honestly communicate your <100% certainty to people who might have voted differently if they'd known risks?
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To be fair, HMT predicted immediate recession with absolute certainty.
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Albeit on a different set of predicates. Which they should have acknowledged was only one possible set.
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My point is simply that both sides acted certain about things herewas no certainty about.
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The interesting question is, 'how do you conduct democracy in a world where folks are happy to be dishonest and have no risk of sanction.'
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What psuedo intellectual bullshit. Try saying 'maybe'.
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Pretty sure you said REF was a terrible idea AND result being bad 4UK might be one probable/possible outcome.Pretty sure combo is newsworthy
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Hence you 'won' the referendum ... you know about this populist psychology & use it, why feign suprise now?
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One thing I hope to take from my current job to the HoC is thinking probabilistically. Not sure it translates that well to the despatch box.
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So only you can manipulate concepts the right way Can cope with problematic judgements etc. Megalomaniac? Arrogant? Doesn't quite come close
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Actually they sort of do. Political Bayesian Updating means allowing for a second referendum. Do you agree?
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TBF few leaders of any kind like uncertainty. That LBJ/economists/ranges story is prob (95%) apocryphal, but bang on the money in message.
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As a remainer I've found the media response to your comments depressing. Is there any way to bring probabilistic language to the mainstream?
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